Death of Blogging Prophesied
November 24, 2003
In his current article for PC Magazine, John C. Dvorak has prophesied the doom of blogging as we know it. WHAT!?! That's right. In his article "Co-Opting the Future", Dvorak draws on research conducted by Perseus Development Corp, to support his view that blogging death is already beginning to show:
Okay, okay. I KNOW that we live in a culture of exponential change, but blogging? Already? What will it be next month? iPod's, Napster, and mp3's? Arrgh! And with predictions of blogging doom now on the horizon, I can't help but wonder about the emerging Church -- wondering what the test of time will reveal as "already antiquated."
If our culture is one of constant change, then in order for the Church to truly be "missional," we must adopt strategies that will accomodate this. Maybe we'll need to trust the Holy Spirit for discernment that will anticipate cultural changes ahead of time so that we can develop strategies that when launched, will still be culturally viable. Or...maybe we need to develop a new bread of missionary (we are all called to be missionaries) who can adapt and engage themselves in the culture so effectively that "change" won't really be seen as an obstacle.
Isn't it funny how a little article about blogging can get me thinking about the future of the Church? Fascinating!
Here are some stats for you, that I got from Living Room Blog:
* 4.12 million blogs in existence using the following blog clients: Blog-City, BlogSpot, Diaryland, LiveJournal, Pitas, TypePad, Weblogger and Xanga.
* 66.0% of blogs haven't been updated for at least 2 months. (thats 2.72 million abandoned blogs out of the above total)
* 1.09 million were one day blogs only with only posts on their first day
* Males are more likely to abandon blogs. Those writing long posts (on average) were less likely to abandon their blogs.
* The average active blog is updated once every 14 days.
* 92.4% of blogs were created by those under 30 years of age.
* 56% of blogs were created by females.
* Projected estimates see 5 million blogs by the end of 2003 and 10 million by the end of 2004.
Hmmm - so the average blog was started by a teenage girl, its likely to have been abandoned, probably only ever written in once. If she updates it, its probably only once a fortnight. But have no fear, there will be twice as many of them in just 15 months time.
Posted by: Benjy (groovythpstr) | November 24, 2003 at 09:29 PM
DP - since when have we ever paid much attention to what Dvorak has to say?!? He enjoys lobbing controversial opinions around a little too much, just to stir people up, if I remember right...
But... I do think it's true that it seems like the change rate of cultural trends is increasing... I'm not at all surprised that there are lots of empty blogs sitting around out there - look at how many empty web pages there are... But that shouldn't and doesn't make a good blog any less important or valuable.
I don't think we need to view change as an obstacle at all. How about if we look on it as a gift? God's provision to us to help us stay on that difficult, narrow path of seeking him, listening to him, depending upon him. Change doesn't allow us to become as complacent and content with "how we've always done things".
I think you've already said this in your post, so I'm just rambling and repeating you here!
Posted by: Chris (ChristopherRobin) | November 24, 2003 at 11:16 PM
"If our culture is one of constant change..."
then the way to reach the culture is to be faithful to the fullness of the faith as it has been preserved. The way you combat culture change is with watchful and flexible *fidelity* ... At least, this is the way it has been done in the East for 2000 years!
Posted by: Karl Thienes | November 25, 2003 at 09:34 AM
Bah. 15 years ago, Dvorak was saying that Macs are dead.
Posted by: Jon Reid | November 25, 2003 at 01:42 PM
Well I have to admit the only blogs I really keep up with are this one and Jack Oneidans one. And thats only because I have a personal interest and involement in what going on with both parties. Jack is exploring orthodoxy (so I need to be handy to chime in on some questions he has). Then you of course have been a kind of pomo pastoral instution on the ooze. So if things get boring there its nice to check to see what posted here. But previously I've been invited to see a bunch of personal Blogs. I check them out a few times buts its hard to fit them in to the usual web stuff.
Infact folks have commented on how I should have my own Blog, but I sort of have made the ooze my unoffical one. Which means, after I pay some land taxes, debts etc. I need to kick down for the big ooze fund raiser.
Yeah Ooze Uber Alles! LOL
Posted by: Pavel (addai) | November 25, 2003 at 03:11 PM
Wow. I'm glad I'm not Dvorak -- sounds like he doesn't have too many supporters out there.
I liked what Chris had to say:
He enjoys lobbing controversial opinions around a little too much, just to stir people up, if I remember right...
Lol! Maybe someone should introduce him to TheOoze! j/k (Chris, I think the point you made about ALL the websites sitting around not being updated was excellent -- what's the difference?)
I also liked what Chris had to say about change being a "gift." She's got me thinking! (I feel a new blog commin' on!)
Posted by: Chris Monroe | November 25, 2003 at 04:52 PM
Karl -- thanks for your thoughts on change. If I'm hearing you right, we need to combat changes in culture, rather than utilizing them, is that right? This is intriguing. I detected a bit of a paradox when you mentioned combatting with watchful and flexible *fidelity* -- flexible fidelity -- that's the somewhat paradoxical notion. Can you elaborate a little on that for me? It sounds interesting.
Posted by: Chris Monroe | November 25, 2003 at 04:59 PM
Paradox=the heart and soul of Orthodox theology and praxis! :)
Combat vs Utilizing....Hmmm. I suppose it is something in between, or rather, a mixture of the best of both. Does that make sense?
From an Orthodox pov (especially as we can see in the history of Russia, Alaska, Africa and other places) the Church is able to enter into culture and over time redeem it *because* it transmits the fullness of the Faith. Thus it never needs to find its self-identity from the surrounding culture. This is the fidelity part. The flexible part comes in when we consider that the Church learns what to bend, what to tweak and what to stand firm on when it comes in contact with new cultures.
With 2000 years of experience the Orthodox have gotten pretty adept at knowing when to do which.
Posted by: Karl Thienes | November 25, 2003 at 07:22 PM
i guess i beat the average blogger odds
Posted by: shok | November 26, 2003 at 09:43 AM